2008 will certainly be a memorable year for the stock market.  Aside from the scandals and bailouts, bankruptcies and failures, average return is on pace to be one of the lowest in history.  This last fact means that many portfolios have declined significantly in value.  As a result, many people have unrealized losses sitting on the books.  Selling some positions to realize a loss could have favorable tax consequences while maintaining most of the upside potential for future gains.

In general, capital losses up to $3000 can be used to offset income each year.  Losses greater than $3000 can be carried over to future years.    Selling enough stock to book a $3000 loss will maximize the amount of income that can be offset this year.  The wash sale rule precludes this loss from applying if the same (of substantially similar) security is bought within 30 days to replace the one you sold.  To maintain upside potential you can either

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There are many ways to measure the success of retailers.  Same store sales - comparing monthly sales to the same month from the previous year- is one common approach.  Another method, which I employed this weekend, is to actually go to the stores to get a better sense of their success.  Seeing whether stores are crowded, or have long checkout lines, are obvious ways to gauge success.  The only store I saw with these indicators of success was Williams-Sonoma, the high-end cooking retailer.  Many others that I visited, including a Hallmark Store, Gap, Bed Bath and Beyond, Gymboree, and Ann Taylor hardly had any other customers.  A few of these retailers were advertising 25% off of  everything in the store.

As if a lack of customers and slashed prices weren’t enough to tell you that many retailers were struggling, I saw a less tangible indication at the Baby Gap: they still had gift boxes available.  Normally gift boxes run out much earlier in the Christmas shopping season.  It seemed as though the cashiers were trying to reduce their large supply of boxes, offering multiple for single item sales.

With terrible economic news being reported on a regular basis, it’s no surprise that retailers are going to struggle this Christmas.  What I saw this weekend makes me think that things may be even worse for them than other, more traditional, indicators might suggest.