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Before I begin, let me issue a little warning about this post. What follows is a stream of consciousness type account of some of the things I’ve been thinking about lately regarding calculations for early retirement. I hope that this post generates a discussion rather than provides any answers on its own merits. I make many assumptions below, but I hope to focus on the method of thinking rather than the merits of those assumptions themselves. Now that that’s out of the way, let’s proceed:
First, Some Background
A general rule of thumb is that you need 25X your yearly expenses saved/invested to be able to retire. I’ve discussed this previously in my post, Deciding Early When to Retire. That number comes from the fact that withdrawing 4% historically allows your investments to last indefinitely. Assuming the 25X number is correct, you might still be miscalculating your retirement needs. It’s in this area that my latest calculations come into play.
The two main factors of influence are my mortgage and the fact that retirement investment accounts can’t be accessed until much later in life then I hope to retire.
Assume a 32-1/2 year old with expenses of $6000 a month including a new 30 year mortgage that is $3500. Using the 25X calculation, you’d say that $1.8 Million is necessary for retirement. If the inflation-adjusted equivalent was finally achieved in a 401K by age 45, however, retirement still wouldn’t be possible, since that money couldn’t be touched without penalty for many more years.
The Solution
To solve this problem, I’ve been considering retirement in two stages: the first part is
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