The latest book review here at Richer by the Day is False Economy: A Surprising Economic History of the World by Alan Beattie.

The stated aim of False Economy is to “explain how and why countries and societies and economies got to where they are today” without succumbing to fatalism.  Analyzing the past, it is argued, often leads to improper conclusions, since the eventual outcome is already known.  As such, ’causes’ of an outcome may have had far less actual influence than hindsight allows us to credit.  To prove the point, the author uses some events in US history that might have been used as evidence of the inevitability of failure, had failure of the US actually occurred.  For example, rather than import the graceful and artistic game of soccer from Europe after our independence, as isolationists we instead created the brutal and violent game of football in its place.

Comparisons have been made between Alan Beattie and Thomas Friedman, though after reading False Economy I doubt it will receive such popular support as the works of Friedman.  That is not to say that False Economy isn’t a good book –it’s quite good — just that the appeal is

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There are many ways to measure the success of retailers.  Same store sales - comparing monthly sales to the same month from the previous year- is one common approach.  Another method, which I employed this weekend, is to actually go to the stores to get a better sense of their success.  Seeing whether stores are crowded, or have long checkout lines, are obvious ways to gauge success.  The only store I saw with these indicators of success was Williams-Sonoma, the high-end cooking retailer.  Many others that I visited, including a Hallmark Store, Gap, Bed Bath and Beyond, Gymboree, and Ann Taylor hardly had any other customers.  A few of these retailers were advertising 25% off of  everything in the store.

As if a lack of customers and slashed prices weren’t enough to tell you that many retailers were struggling, I saw a less tangible indication at the Baby Gap: they still had gift boxes available.  Normally gift boxes run out much earlier in the Christmas shopping season.  It seemed as though the cashiers were trying to reduce their large supply of boxes, offering multiple for single item sales.

With terrible economic news being reported on a regular basis, it’s no surprise that retailers are going to struggle this Christmas.  What I saw this weekend makes me think that things may be even worse for them than other, more traditional, indicators might suggest.